Ongoing Market Commentary: Oil jumps on supply concerns

written on June 28, 2022

The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

US equity markets closed slightly lower on Monday as inflation woes and the monetary policy outlook remained at the forefront of concerns. The Dow 30 and the W&P 500 edged down 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, while the Nasdaq led losses with a 0.9% drop. In the meantime, European equities rose for a second straight session on Monday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 advancing by 0.2% and building on the momentum from last week’s solid performance, driven by gains in the technology sector. 

Summary

  • Shares in Asia struggled for direction this morning with most movements well within plus or minus 1%, as investors weigh economic concerns.  
  • Oil prices climbed over 1% on Tuesday, extending gains for the third session, as two major producers – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – are reportedly very close to their near-term capacity limits. Meanwhile, the G7 has vowed to launch new sanctions that include a plan to cap the price of Russian oil, while political unrest might curtail supply from Ecuador and Libya. 
  • European and US equity futures were pointing to a lower open later in the day. 
  • New orders for US-made capital goods went up 0.7% mom in May, the third straight month of gains. Figures beat market forecasts of a 0.1% rise, a sign that business spending plans remain strong so far despite higher interest rates and inflation. 
  • G7 leaders are set to instruct ministers to explore implementing a price cap on Russian gas as part of broader discussions on how to limit the profit it makes on its energy exports. Meanwhile, Germany hopes to import liquefied natural gas from Canada to help replace the Russian gas it still relies on for more than a third of its imports. 
  • Nike beat analysts’ estimates for quarterly revenue on Monday, benefiting from strong demand for its athletic apparel and sneakers in North America and Europe. Sales in China fell by 19% amid the lockdowns but was still much better than some more bearish analyst estimates ahead of the report. 
  • Credit Suisse was found guilty of money laundering charges in the first ever criminal conviction of a major Swiss lender in the country’s history. A former relationship manager at the bank was also convicted. The case centred around the bank failing to prevent money laundering by customers of a cocaine-smuggling Bulgarian wrestler. 
  • Morgan Stanley and Bank of America said on Monday they are hiking their dividends, while JPMorgan will keep their flat, after the US Federal Reserve gave them a clean bill of health following their annual stress tests last week.  
  • Robinhood shares jumped 14% on Monday after Bloomberg News reported crypto exchange FTX was considering the acquisition of the trading app. 

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