Global financial markets faced renewed pressure as investor sentiment weakened amid a renewed surge in oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions. Concerns over supply disruption, persistent inflation, and fragile confidence continue to shape market direction heading towards the end of the quarter, following weakness seen yesterday.
Market Overview
Global equities came under broad pressure, led by a sharp selloff in the United States. The Nasdaq fell around 2.4%, the S&P 500 dropped about 1.7%, and the Dow declined roughly 1.0%.
The weakness was driven by a renewed surge in oil prices and deteriorating sentiment around Middle East tensions. Conflicting signals on a potential ceasefire and firmer rhetoric towards Iran heightened fears of supply disruption and persistent inflation.
US Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield climbing to approximately 4.43%, reflecting reduced confidence in near-term de-escalation and expectations that central banks may remain cautious for longer.
The negative tone extended globally, with European markets falling over 1% and Asian markets showing mixed but generally weaker performance.
Across asset classes, the shift in sentiment was clear. Oil prices jumped about 5%, while gold and silver declined sharply, suggesting investors were repositioning rather than moving uniformly into traditional safe havens.
In equities, most sectors fell, particularly technology and communication services, while energy shares outperformed on higher crude prices.
Bond markets also showed signs of stress, with weak demand at US Treasury auctions adding to concerns. Technically, major US indices broke below key long-term levels, further weighing on sentiment.
Overall, markets reflected a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, and fragile investor confidence heading towards the end of the quarter.
Latest Market and Economic Update
Asia-Pacific Markets
Asian equities traded in a flat to weaker range, pressured by ongoing Middle East tensions despite temporary relief after Donald Trump delayed potential strikes on Iran.
South Korea’s KOSPI led declines amid heavy losses in chip shares. Elsewhere, Japan fell modestly, China was mixed, and most regional markets remained on track for weekly losses.
United States
US equity futures rose modestly, with S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.1%, and Dow futures up 0.3%, after Donald Trump delayed Iran strike plans by another 10 days.
However, gains faded on reports of possible troop deployments, highlighting persistent geopolitical uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment in afterhours trade and ongoing market volatility.
Europe
European equities fell on Thursday, ending a three-day winning streak, as uncertainty over Middle East peace talks and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.
The STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 both declined. Key movers included ASML Holding, Siemens Energy, Thyssenkrupp, H&M, while NEXT led gains following strong profit and sales growth.
Currency and Commodities Update
The US Dollar Index strengthened 0.3% to 99.90, supported by safe haven demand amid ongoing US–Iran tensions and mixed messages from Donald Trump on negotiations. The euro edged up 0.1% to 1.1538.
Separately, US $100 bills will soon feature Trump’s signature alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, marking a historic design change for the nation’s 250th anniversary.
Oil prices eased in Asian trading, with Brent crude down 0.7% to $107.8 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate slipping 0.8% to $93.72, set for weekly losses over 4%.
Supply fears eased after Donald Trump delayed Iran strikes, while rising Strait of Hormuz traffic of 10 tankers reassured markets, though volumes remain below normal amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and volatility.
Equities on the Move
Corporate Developments
Brown-Forman and Pernod Ricard confirmed talks over a potential merger of equals, aiming to create the world’s largest spirits group with significant synergies. Brown-Forman shares rose in afterhours trade, while Pernod fell earlier. The discussions come amid slowing demand, rising costs, trade pressures, and shifting consumer preferences globally.
Apple plans to open its Siri voice assistant to rival AI services, including Alphabet’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude, via its iOS 27 update. The move allows third-party integration, positioning the iPhone as a broader AI platform, enhancing user choice, and potentially generating additional revenue from subscriptions sold through these services.
Technology and Media
Meta Platforms shares fell more than 7% after two US verdicts held it liable for harm to young users, raising fears of extensive litigation targeting platform design. Fines totalled hundreds of millions, but potential future claims could reach billions, adding uncertainty just as Meta invests heavily in AI. Shares hit 10-month lows, while Alphabet and Snap also declined.
AppLovin shares fell sharply, amid concerns over weak e-commerce spending and customer churn in Q1, with scale and creative challenges limiting growth. Generative AI tools may ease these issues. The company maintains a strong gaming position, with its Max mediation platform helping retain customers and providing stability despite e-commerce headwinds.
Netflix has raised US subscription prices across all plans, with the ad-supported tier at $8.99, standard at $19.99, and premium at $26.99, while extra member fees also increased. The move supports new programming, including live sports and video podcasts, and is expected to lift average revenue per subscriber by 6% in 2026.
Industrial and Consumer
Vinci agreed with Macquarie Asset Management to acquire the Safeway Concessions portfolio for the equivalent of $1.6 billion. The deal includes nine toll highways spanning nearly 700 km across southeast and western India, linking industrial, agricultural, and logistics areas. Operations are under National Highways Authority contracts, with financial closing expected by end-2026.
H&M reported first-quarter results in line with expectations, with slightly stronger profits supported by improved margins. Sales declined modestly year-on-year and inventory fell. Near-term trading is weaker than forecast, with soft March growth. The company has limited Middle East exposure but is monitoring potential indirect impacts on global trade.
Financial and Investment Developments
Citron Research shorted Fundrise Growth Tech Fund (VCX), citing a vast gap between its $400 trading price and $19 asset value. It questioned Fundrise’s marketing practices, past SEC violations, and the GetVCX.com domain. If VCX’s premium narrows like similar funds, its price could fall over 93%, while 100,000 investors remain locked in until September.
Anthropic is reportedly considering an IPO as early as Q4 2026, aiming to raise over $60 billion, potentially one of the largest in history after SpaceX. Backed by Alphabet Inc and Amazon.com, Anthropic follows rival OpenAI in seeking public funding to support costly AI development amid concerns over tightening market liquidity.
Elon Musk is considering allocating up to 30% of SpaceX’s IPO to individual investors, triple the usual retail portion. The move aims to engage Musk’s loyal supporters and influence shareholder composition, with Bank of America chosen to handle domestic retail distribution, marking a departure from standard Wall Street IPO practices.
Analyst Ratings and Market Outlook
Macro and Strategy Views
Barclays advises staying overweight US equities despite energy-driven volatility, citing AI adoption and a robust investment cycle. The broker expects 15% US earnings growth in 2026, supported by de-rated valuations and Big Tech revisions. Policy flexibility and margin support differentiate the US from Europe, favouring structural winners while hedging near-term risks.
UBS cut its 2026 STOXX 600 target to 630 from 650, citing rising energy supply risks from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. While assuming 7% earnings growth, the bank warns of stagflation or recession under prolonged disruption. Energy stocks benefit from higher prices, but consumer, auto, and construction sectors face pressure from rising costs and inflation.
Bank of America expects near-term US dollar strength, driven by high energy prices and hawkish central bank expectations. It forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 and USD/JPY at 160 by Q2. The Middle East energy shock supports the dollar, though it is expected to weaken later in 2026, assuming energy markets stabilise and risk premiums ease.
Technology and Semiconductors
Bernstein raised ASML’s price target to €1,700, citing accelerating DRAM capacity expansion that will more than double EUV shipments to memory customers by 2028. EPS estimates for 2027–28 were lifted, reflecting accelerated clean room timelines at SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. Global DRAM equipment spending is projected to surge, highlighting significant growth potential for ASML.
Needham & Company upgraded Arm Holdings to Buy with a $200 target, citing successful strategic moves as AI CPU demand grows. Arm’s push into higher royalties, compute subsystems, and its own silicon, including the AGI CPU with Meta, positions it as a credible AI player, transforming the company and disrupting the industry landscape.
Morgan Stanley defended US memory-chip makers, saying the recent selloff reflects profit-taking, not weaker demand. Analyst Joseph Moore highlighted memory as a bottleneck for AI and next-gen CPUs. Despite productivity gains and valuation concerns, rising AI-driven semiconductor spending supports strong margins, free cash flow, and long-term demand for Micron and SanDisk.
Consumer and Internet
Truist upgraded Airbnb to Hold from Sell after strong travel demand and improved earnings forecasts. It raised 2026 and introduced 2027 projections, alongside a higher price target. The upgrade reflects sector resilience despite Middle East tensions, with global travel trends remaining solid and Airbnb’s future earnings seen supporting valuation with potential upside.
Jefferies initiated Robinhood Markets with a Buy rating and $88 target, citing its evolution into a financial “super app” and exposure to generational wealth transfer. Customer numbers and platform assets are rising, non-transactional revenue is growing, and profitability is improving, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to reach 58.2% by 2027 despite moderated near-term trading.
William Blair downgraded Adobe to Market Perform, citing intense competition in Creative Cloud and uncertainty over its long-term AI positioning. Despite trading at nine times free cash flow, rivals like Canva, Figma, and AI-native firms threaten pricing power and differentiation. Adobe’s strong margins could attract further pressure, keeping the stock likely range-bound.
Industrials and European Equities
Bernstein downgraded Qualcomm to Market-Perform, cutting its price target to $140 due to rising memory costs, weakening smartphone demand, and falling Apple modem volumes. Analyst Stacy Rasgon warned consensus is too optimistic, with revenue and EPS headwinds from Apple transitions. Buybacks or datacenter initiatives are insufficient to offset broader pressures.
Deutsche Bank upgraded Leonardo to Buy, raising its price target to €70, citing improved valuation and medium-term growth visibility. The Italian defence group aims for 9% sales and 15.5% EBITA CAGR to 2030, supported by efficiency gains, robust air defence demand, and geopolitical tensions. Units like Leonardo DRS and Helicopters may exceed expectations.
Morgan Stanley upgraded STMicroelectronics to Overweight, raising its price target to €36, citing strong data centre demand and early industrial recovery. Revenue and EPS estimates for 2026–27 were lifted, supported by power semiconductors, photonic chips, and NXP’s MEMS integration. Gross margins and EBIT are expected to improve, with bull and bear scenarios ranging €53–€11.
Upcoming Economic Data
On Friday, the UK releases February retail sales, while in the US, February wholesale and retail inventories, final March University of Michigan data on consumer sentiment, expectations, current conditions and inflation, Fed’s Daly speech, and Baker Hughes’ total and oil rig counts are all published.
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