Global financial markets staged a broad recovery last week, driven by progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks, a landmark IPO on Wall Street and growing anticipation around the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting under its new chair. From energy markets to technology stocks, a wide range of assets shifted materially as geopolitical risk receded and investor appetite for risk assets returned. This weekly roundup covers all the key developments shaping the outlook for global investors.
Market overview
Friday’s equity session closed on a positive note as investors responded to encouraging signs from US-Iran peace negotiations. Hopes of a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil flows, drove WTI crude oil down to around $84 per barrel, setting off a broad risk-on move across global markets.
European and Asian equities posted solid advances, while US stocks also gained ground. The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 led the way with a gain of 0.8%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq underperformed relative to the wider market, though sentiment improved heading into the close after a difficult week for the sector. Bond yields edged higher despite lower oil prices, and the US dollar weakened against major peers as investors rotated towards risk assets.
Across the week as a whole, market performance was shaped by three dominant themes: Middle East diplomacy, shifting expectations around energy prices, and anticipation ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. Technology shares bore the brunt of investor caution at points during the week, but optimism surrounding diplomatic progress and falling oil helped major indices recover meaningful ground by Friday’s close. Investor attention was also captured by the blockbuster IPO of SpaceX, whose shares surged on debut and highlighted continued appetite for high-profile growth companies. Looking ahead, markets will focus on the outcome of the latest US-Iran talks, the performance of newly listed SpaceX shares and, most importantly, signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future path of interest rates under Chair Warsh. Current market pricing suggests policy is likely to remain on hold in the near term, provided energy-driven inflation pressures continue to ease.
Latest market and economic update
The latest sessions brought significant market-moving developments spanning equities, currencies, commodities and central bank expectations. Below is a breakdown of the key updates across each asset class.
Asian equities hit fresh highs on peace deal optimism
Asian equity markets surged on Monday after the US and Iran agreed a preliminary peace deal, raising expectations of reduced Middle East tensions and lower energy costs going forward. Japan’s Nikkei 225 reached a new record high, while South Korea’s KOSPI delivered an exceptional session, jumping 5.6% in a single day. Investors were also positioning ahead of closely watched policy decisions from the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve later in the week.
US equity futures rally strongly at the open
US equity futures climbed sharply on Monday morning following confirmation of the US-Iran peace framework, which markets interpreted as a peace deal expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and reduce geopolitical tensions. With oil prices falling, concerns about energy-driven inflation and further interest rate increases eased, supporting a broad improvement in market sentiment. Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures each advanced more than 1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained over 2% at the open.
European equities push higher led by banks and technology
The Euro STOXX 50 rose 2% while the broader STOXX Europe 600 added 1.8%, both benefiting from the decline in oil prices following the US-Iran peace reports. European bank stocks led the rally, with Deutsche Bank, Santander and BNP Paribas among the notable gainers. ASML also advanced, supported by continued optimism around artificial intelligence investment. Lower yields provided additional tailwinds following the ECB’s recent rate rise and the cautious policy guidance it has signalled into 2027.
The US dollar weakens as risk appetite returns
The US dollar fell to a 10-day low after Washington and Tehran confirmed their peace framework, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven currencies and pushing oil sharply lower. The euro, sterling and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars all strengthened against the greenback. Currency market participants also looked ahead to upcoming policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Oil prices drop sharply on improved supply outlook
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Monday after the US and Iran announced their framework deal, with expectations of improved oil supplies and resumed Iranian exports weighing on prices. However, investors remained cautious: the agreement still requires formal implementation, and execution risks remain until the deal is fully ratified and operational changes are confirmed.
Equities on the move
Several individual companies saw significant share price movements last week, driven by analyst ratings changes, corporate news and broader sector themes. Below is a summary of the most notable movers.
SpaceX makes a historic Nasdaq debut
SpaceX shares surged 19% on their first day of trading on the Nasdaq, closing at $160.95 after touching an intraday high of $176.52. The listing valued the company at more than $2 trillion and, at those levels, made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Despite the company having reported recent losses, investor demand was overwhelming, drawing strong participation from both retail and institutional buyers. The SpaceX IPO is seen as a benchmark for future AI listings.
CFRA initiates SpaceX with a Sell rating
CFRA initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Sell rating and a price target of $115, citing valuation concerns, execution risks around the Starship programme and the company’s substantial ongoing capital requirements. The firm cautioned that investors may be pricing in multiple ambitious growth outcomes simultaneously, including Starlink expansion and early-stage AI ventures, all of which carry high degrees of uncertainty.
Roku explores strategic options as shares jump
Roku is exploring strategic alternatives, including a potential sale, amid reported interest from media, technology and advertising companies. The attraction lies in Roku’s base of more than 100 million streaming households and its growing advertising platform. Shares jumped 20% on the news. The company has also considered alternative financing options as competitive pressures intensify in the ad-supported streaming market.
Barclays identifies sectors to benefit from a US-Iran deal
Barclays analysts suggested that European equities and cyclically sensitive consumer stocks could benefit most from a US-Iran deal scenario, as reduced geopolitical risk and lower oil prices would support those areas of the market. Europe, and particularly luxury and leisure sectors, has lagged other markets but could see catch-up gains. The bank also pointed to improving US luxury demand and potential tailwinds from World Cup-related consumer spending as additional positive factors.
UBS cuts gold price forecasts
UBS has cut its gold price forecasts by $300–$900/oz, citing stronger than expected US economic data, higher real interest rates and a later-than-anticipated timeline for Federal Reserve easing, which the bank now expects around 2027. The firm sees near-term prices drifting toward a range of $3,850 to $4,000 per ounce as profit-taking and weaker exchange-traded fund inflows weigh on sentiment. Longer term, however, UBS remains bullish on gold, supported by sustained central bank buying and the potential for dollar weakness.
Standard Chartered sees Bitcoin at cycle low
Standard Chartered analysts suggested that the cryptocurrency market may have reached its cycle low, with Bitcoin bottoming around $59,000 after a 53% drop from its peak. The bank cited several potential catalysts for recovery, including the positive fallout from a US-Iran peace deal, easing pressures on oil prices and bond yields, and selling related to SpaceX IPO-linked exchange-traded funds. Standard Chartered expects recovery toward $100,000 and sees the current level as a buying zone.
Citi upgrades AMD to Buy with a sharply higher price target
Citi upgraded Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) from Neutral to Buy and raised its price target to $575, arguing that the market is significantly undervaluing the company’s growing position in artificial intelligence graphics processing units. The bank expects AMD to win substantial new business from Meta, which it believes will drive strong AI revenue growth. Citi also lifted its broader CPU market forecasts and now projects AMD earnings well above existing consensus estimates.
Adobe faces wave of analyst downgrades
Adobe shares came under pressure after a series of analyst downgrades following its latest results. Wolfe Research, Evercore ISI and Stifel all lowered their ratings, pointing to weaker organic ARR growth, reduced full-year guidance and a strategic shift toward freemium product expansion. Analyst sentiment was further weighed down by leadership uncertainty, with concerns that execution risks may persist until new management is firmly established.
Rolls-Royce upgraded by Berenberg
Berenberg upgraded Rolls-Royce to ‘buy’, highlighting the company’s younger engine fleet, its leading position in flight-hour growth and its relative resilience to higher fuel prices. The broker noted that Rolls-Royce’s strong exposure to widebody aircraft should help cushion the impact of any airline capacity reductions. Berenberg also raised its 2026 forecasts for the company, reflecting expectations of improved cash generation, earnings growth and continued support from its Defence and Power Systems divisions.
Upcoming economic events and data releases
The week ahead is dominated by central bank decisions and high-impact economic data that are likely to shape market direction well into the summer.
The most closely watched event will be the Federal Reserve’s first meeting under Chair Warsh, where markets will be listening carefully for any signals about the future path of interest rates. Alongside the Fed, rate decisions are expected from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.
On the data front, inflation readings, retail sales figures, industrial production numbers and labour market updates are due across the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and China. Together, these releases will help investors calibrate their expectations for both economic growth trajectories and the likely direction of monetary policy over the remainder of the year. Current market pricing suggests the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in the near term, provided that energy-driven inflation pressures continue to moderate.
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