US equities steady amid Fed uncertainty and tech rebound
Friday’s trading session in the United States saw a recovery in equities after a weak start, led by a rebound in major technology stocks. The S&P 500 closed nearly flat, while the Nasdaq pared back earlier losses. Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield settling near 4.15%.
Investor sentiment remained cautious following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut. Futures now suggest a 45% probability, down from 70% earlier in the week.
Weekly market trends and sector rotation
Over the week, the S&P 500 posted a modest gain, while the Nasdaq declined as investors reassessed valuations in growth-heavy sectors. A rotation into healthcare, energy, and materials gained momentum, reflecting a broader search for resilience after a strong year for AI and tech stocks.
European equities contributed positively, buoyed by recent policy easing and economic momentum. Emerging markets also benefited from tech exposure and a weaker US dollar. In the US, the end of the record-length government shutdown offered some reassurance, though it is still expected to dampen fourth-quarter activity before conditions improve in early 2026.
Asian equities slide on weak data and geopolitical tensions
Asian markets opened the week lower, pressured by disappointing Japanese GDP figures, rising China-Japan tensions, and caution ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Japan led the declines, followed by China and Hong Kong. However, South Korea’s KOSPI outperformed, driven by a rebound in chipmakers.
US futures rise ahead of key earnings and economic data
US equity futures edged higher overnight, with investors anticipating delayed economic data and major earnings reports from Nvidia, Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Palo Alto Networks, and Intuit. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, while Dow futures remained flat.
European markets weaken despite weekly gains
European shares fell on Friday, weighed down by hawkish US commentary. Despite this, the STOXX 600 posted its strongest weekly gain since September. Technology stocks declined, while Richemont and Siemens Energy rose. Siemens Energy announced its first dividend in four years and raised its mid-term outlook, guiding for low-teens CAGR and 14–16% margins by 2028, exceeding market expectations. Eurozone growth remained modest.
Currency and commodities update
The US dollar strengthened slightly in Asian trading, holding firm against the euro, which fell 0.11% to $1.1607. Investors await key data releases to gauge the Fed’s next move.
Oil prices declined as Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings. Brent fell 0.9% to $63.80, and WTI dropped 1% to $59.47. Despite this, geopolitical risks remain due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, tightening US sanctions, and tensions in the Gulf.
Cryptocurrency market update
Bitcoin dropped to a six-month low of $93,043, down 1.6%, as rate cut expectations faded. The decline follows three consecutive weekly losses and a prolonged data blackout from the US shutdown. Ethereum and other altcoins also weakened. Japan is considering reclassifying cryptocurrencies as financial products, potentially introducing a flat 20% tax.
Equities on the move
Several companies saw notable share price movements driven by earnings reports, analyst ratings, strategic announcements, or geopolitical developments. Below is a breakdown of key equity movers:
Alphabet Inc.
Shares surged over 4% in after-hours trading after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.3 billion stake, making Alphabet its tenth-largest US holding. The move follows strong earnings and plans to invest $40 billion in AI-focused data centres in Texas.
Samsung Electronics
Samsung raised memory chip prices by up to 60%, boosting shares of Samsung, SK Hynix, and US chipmakers. The surge is driven by demand from AI data centres, with DDR5 module costs for servers and other devices surging. Samsung plans a new production line in South Korea. The shortage is driving panic buying and higher product costs.
Apple Inc.
A California jury ordered Apple to pay $634 million to Masimo over patent infringement related to blood-oxygen monitoring technology in Apple Watches. Apple plans to appeal. Meanwhile, Apple is intensifying succession planning as Tim Cook may step down next year, with John Ternus seen as a likely successor. No CEO announcement is expected before January.
Alibaba
The White House accused Alibaba of providing technological support to the Chinese military in operations against US targets, according to a Financial Times report citing a national security memo. Alibaba and the Chinese embassy denied the claims, calling them false and unverified. U.S.-traded Alibaba shares fell 3.8% following the report.
Barrick Mining
Barrick is considering a split between North American and African/Asian assets, potentially selling off higher-risk operations, including African assets and the Reko Diq mine in Pakistan. The move aims to refocus on more stable regions like Nevada’s Fourmile, which investors see as more secure.
Siemens Energy
Shares jumped over 10% after strong Q4 results and upgraded targets. Growth in gas turbines and grid technologies offset losses in its onshore Gamesa wind division. CEO Christian Bruch proposed the first dividend in four years and guided for low-teens CAGR and 14–16% margins by 2028, exceeding market expectations.
CMA CGM
The shipping giant expects a tough year ahead due to excess capacity and slowing demand. Third-quarter core EBITDA fell 40.5% year-on-year to $2.96 billion. Freight rates are expected to normalise by 2026. CMA CGM is poised to become the world’s second-largest container line by 2027 and is diversifying into logistics, ports, and retail.
Lukoil
Russia’s Lukoil is negotiating the sale of foreign assets amid UK and US sanctions and the collapse of a Gunvor deal. The company aims to maintain operations, safeguard jobs, and ensure energy supply during the transfer. Final agreements await regulatory approvals, with talks ongoing amid continued pressure from US sanctions.
Analyst insights and investor moves
Wedbush
Wedbush views current tech weakness as temporary, citing strong AI fundamentals and rising cloud capex. Cloud results from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, rising capex from Meta, and projected AI infrastructure spending of $550–600 billion in 2026, up from $380 billion this year, support resilience. Nvidia remains a key bellwether.
Ron Baron
The billionaire investor predicts Tesla could rise 5–7x over the next decade, driven by Elon Musk’s AI and robotics ambitions, especially the Optimus humanoid robot. He highlighted production plans of up to one billion units annually and described the technology as transformative, reshaping labour and living standards.
Peter Thiel
Thiel exited his Nvidia stake, selling over 537,000 shares worth nearly $100 million, citing concerns over a tech bubble. He also reduced Tesla holdings while increasing positions in Apple and Microsoft. Thiel’s move follows similar exits by major investors, highlighting growing caution over stretched technology valuations.
Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley expects a breakout quarter for Nvidia, raising its price target to $220 and maintaining an Overweight rating. Analyst Joseph Moore highlighted strong demand, resolved supply issues, and growth constraints shifting to hardware, predicting faster growth than consensus and a momentum shift for the company.
Stifel
Stifel downgraded Home Depot to Hold, citing pressure in the home-improvement sector and stagnant or declining sales forecasts. The analyst warned that weaker-than-expected same-store sales could heighten scrutiny of Home Depot’s $20 billion-plus Complex Pro business investments.
JPMorgan
JPMorgan upgraded MP Materials to Overweight, citing its “underappreciated national security importance” and strong earnings visibility. Analyst Bill Peterson set a December 2026 target of $74, highlighting the company’s DoD deal and vertical integration as a US-based ex-China leader in rare earths. Shares are seen as attractive despite near-term retail-driven volatility.
Jefferies
Jefferies upgraded Gap Inc. to Buy, citing strong momentum across its brands and potential upside to revenue and margins. The firm highlighted Gap’s turnaround, Old Navy’s value positioning, and Athleta’s recovery, raising fiscal 2027 revenue and EPS estimates. Jefferies sees a path to 9%+ operating margins and a price target of $30, with an upside of $50.
Upcoming data and events
With the US government shutdown over, investors are watching for:
- US flash PMIs
- Existing home sales
- ADP jobs report
- Retail earnings from major companies
- Fed and RBA meeting minutes
- Eurozone and Asia PMIs
- Japan GDP and inflation
- Global GDP and CPI updates
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