Markets higher despite OECD growth downgrade

written on June 4, 2025

A Surge in Equities Driven by Tech and Trade Momentum

Global equity markets ended Tuesday in positive territory, with investor sentiment uplifted by renewed trade discussions and standout performances in the technology and energy sectors. President Trump’s executive order to double tariffs on steel and aluminium reignited trade negotiations and provided a short-term catalyst for market gains, as officials aimed to reach agreements before the July 9 deadline.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.51 percent, while the S&P 500 rose 0.58 percent. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a gain of 0.81 percent, led by semiconductor giants such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Hopes for a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping supported the broader risk appetite, with markets watching closely for signs of progress on tariff policy.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.45 percent. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar appreciated against major currencies, reflecting increased investor confidence and expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Mixed Economic Signals from the U.S. and Abroad

In the United States, job openings rose to 7.4 million in April, indicating continued strength in the labor market. Despite this, layoffs ticked up slightly and voluntary quits showed a mild decline, hinting at pockets of hesitation among workers. On the manufacturing front, data revealed some softness. Factory orders contracted by 3.7 percent and inventories declined following months of stockpiling prompted by earlier tariff risks. However, analysts noted that the general outlook for U.S. manufacturing remains stable for the time being.

Across Asia, market sentiment was more mixed. Chinese manufacturing fell into contraction, contributing to broader regional uncertainty. Most Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, led by South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged 2.4 percent after the election of Lee Jae-myung. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s major indices also saw gains amid optimism for U.S.-China trade cooperation. Japan and Australia posted moderate advances, despite subdued economic data.

In Europe, equities ended largely flat. A drop in eurozone inflation to 1.9 percent heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank, possibly as soon as this week. Investor enthusiasm was tempered by the OECD’s downgrade of global growth prospects and rising political instability in the Netherlands.

Corporate Developments Shaping Market Momentum

Several corporate headlines influenced investor behavior. Hewlett Packard Enterprise shares jumped nearly five percent in after-hours trading after the company exceeded second-quarter revenue and profit expectations. The company cited strong demand for AI-optimized servers and raised its full-year guidance.

CrowdStrike, on the other hand, saw its stock fall 6.5 percent after it issued weaker revenue guidance for the next quarter. The cybersecurity firm flagged reduced government and enterprise spending, and expects a $29 million impact to free cash flow from recent outages. CrowdStrike is also navigating headwinds from higher interest rates, inflation, and intensifying competition.

Wells Fargo saw renewed investor confidence following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to lift the long-standing $1.95 trillion asset cap. This move signals meaningful progress in the bank’s internal reforms and allows it to pursue broader growth strategies under CEO Charlie Scharf. To commemorate the milestone, employees received $2,000 each, a gesture that further boosted morale and market sentiment.

In the healthcare space, Hims & Hers announced the acquisition of European digital health platform ZAVA. The all-cash deal, expected to close in the second half of 2025, marks a major strategic expansion into Germany, France, Ireland, and the UK, and adds approximately 1.3 million new users.

Meta Platforms also made headlines by signing a 20-year agreement to purchase 1.1 gigawatts of nuclear energy from Constellation Energy’s Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois. This initiative supports Meta’s goal of operating on 100 percent clean energy while also helping to boost the plant’s long-term output.

Analyst Ratings and Strategic Shifts Across Sectors

Investor interest was piqued by a series of analyst updates across various industries. Jefferies reaffirmed its Buy rating on Netflix and raised the price target to $1,400, citing its strong content pipeline, growth in advertising revenue, and resilience to recent price hikes. Bernstein identified Boeing as a top pick in the aerospace sector, praising its production momentum, stabilizing fundamentals, and attractive valuation. The firm expects 737 MAX production to increase from 38 to 42 units per month by year-end.

Barclays, however, downgraded ASML to “equal weight” due to a more cautious near-term revenue outlook, driven by weaker-than-expected EUV sales and delays in High-NA adoption. Nevertheless, long-term growth projections for ASML remain solid, with forecasts of 11% annual growth from 2026 to 2030.

Other notable updates included Evercore ISI’s upgrade of Block, supported by improved product launches, stable low-end consumer activity, and reduced lending risks in Cash App. JP Morgan raised its rating for Pinterest, anticipating strong ad revenue and user engagement. In contrast, Jefferies downgraded Rio Tinto amid concerns over CEO transition, lithium strategy, U.S. tariffs on Canadian aluminium, and broader geopolitical exposure. Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale were preferred due to stronger capital allocation and risk profiles.

Global Currency and Commodity Movements

The U.S. Dollar Index eased to around 99.1 on Wednesday, as markets awaited key labor market updates that could influence future Federal Reserve decisions. The dollar weakened notably against the South Korean won, while EUR/USD hovered near 1.1368. The broader currency landscape reflected cautious optimism amid mixed economic signals and ongoing trade uncertainties.

Oil prices pulled back slightly during Asian trading after recent gains tied to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran. A larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories signaled strong seasonal demand, while Canadian wildfires presented risks to supply continuity.

Eyes on the Data: What’s Next

Looking ahead, market participants are focused on several key data releases and earnings announcements. In the U.S., the ADP employment report, services PMI data, and crude oil inventory figures will offer fresh insights into labor trends, economic resilience, and energy supply.

In Europe, preliminary HCOB PMI readings for France, Germany, and the broader eurozone will provide a timely snapshot of business activity. On the corporate front, Costco is expected to release its quarterly earnings, which could further guide investor sentiment.

Disclaimer: This information is provided solely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice, advice on specific investments or investment decisions, tax advice, legal advice, or any other form of professional or regulatory advice. The information does not take into account your personal circumstances and is provided to you on the express understanding that it does not constitute advice and should not be relied upon in making any investment decision. Investing in financial instruments involves risk. You should conduct your own research before making any investment decisions and seek the assistance of a licensed financial advisor if you are unsure. No person should act on any opinion or information contained in this document without first obtaining appropriate professional advice. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Limited does not accept liability for any actions, proceedings, costs, demands, expenses, damages, or losses suffered as a result of reliance on the information herein. 

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