US market recap
Here’s a breakdown of key economic indicators and market movements in the US.
The labour market and the services sector show strength
The US economy delivered a surprise upside in October, with the ADP employment report revealing a 42,000 increase in private payrolls, surpassing expectations of 35,000 and breaking a two-month decline. Simultaneously, the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, an eight-month high, driven by growth in new orders, employment, and business activity.
However, the rise in the prices sub-index to its highest level since October 2022 reignited inflation concerns, nudging bond yields higher.
Equity indices and sector performance
Despite inflationary pressures, major US indices closed higher:
- Nasdaq Composite: +0.7%
- S&P 500: +0.4%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.5%
Investors interpreted the previous session’s sell-off as profit-taking rather than a shift in sentiment. Communication services and consumer discretionary stocks led the rebound, with notable gains from Alphabet and Amgen. The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 5.2% to 18.01, reflecting improved market sentiment.
Seasonal trends and market outlook
Historically, November and December are favourable months for equities, with average gains of 1.9% and 1.4% respectively. The S&P 500 has already climbed approximately 15% in 2025, maintaining momentum despite earlier volatility.
Asian and European market highlights
A look at how major Asian and European indices performed amid shifting investor sentiment.
Asia: Tech and consumer stocks lead gains
Asian equities rebounded on Thursday, led by Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.5%) and China’s CSI 300 (+1.4%). Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, supported by strength in semiconductor and AI-related shares.
Europe: Recovery driven by autos and energy
European shares also closed higher, with the STOXX 600 up 0.2%. While healthcare stocks lagged, with Novo Nordisk falling 4.5% and Ambu dropping 15.8%, autos and energy sectors gained, led by BMW and Vestas. Strong earnings and eurozone growth helped offset concerns around AI valuations.
Currency and commodity markets
Updates on foreign exchange and energy markets reflecting macroeconomic trends.
US dollar and interest rate expectations
The US dollar hovered near a three-month high, supported by strong economic data and reduced expectations for a December rate cut. The EUR/USD exchange rate held around 1.1508 amid uncertainty from the ongoing US government shutdown.
Oil prices stabilise
Oil prices steadied in Asian trading:
- Brent: $63.54
- WTI: $59.44
Recent losses were driven by oversupply fears, weak demand, and a stronger dollar. OPEC+ production increases and high US output continue to weigh on sentiment.
Equities on the move
Key strategic moves, earnings results, and sector-specific updates from major companies.
- SoftBank Group reportedly explored acquiring US chipmaker Marvell Technology earlier this year, with plans to merge it with Arm Holdings. Although talks did not result in a deal, the move aligned with SoftBank’s ambitions to expand in artificial intelligence. Marvell designs AI and data centre chips, including exclusive products for Amazon.
- Apple plans to use Google’s 1.2 trillion-parameter Gemini AI model to revamp its Siri voice assistant, paying about $1 billion annually for access. The model will serve as a temporary solution until Apple’s own systems are ready, addressing Siri’s limitations compared with Alexa and Google Assistant. The partnership excludes Google AI search integration.
- Pfizer is preparing to sweeten its bid for Metsera after a judge denied its attempt to block Novo Nordisk’s $10 billion offer. The takeover battle, driven by the growing obesity drug market, has faced regulatory scrutiny, with the FTC warning Novo’s deal may breach antitrust law. Pfizer raised its offer to $70 per share on Wednesday.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned that China could surpass the US in the artificial intelligence race, citing China’s developer base and restrictions on Nvidia’s market access. While advocating for America to lead globally, he stressed the need to engage Chinese developers. Advanced Nvidia AI chips remain restricted, with the US limiting exports of its most sophisticated semiconductors.
- OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar dismissed concerns of an AI bubble, arguing the market underestimates the technology’s practical potential. Speaking at WSJ’s Tech Live, she defended OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion infrastructure investments and financing deals with Nvidia and AMD, rejecting claims of circularity. Friar also confirmed that an IPO is not planned in the near term.
- Netflix is reportedly in talks to license Sirius XM’s video podcasts, potentially on an exclusive basis to block YouTube, as part of its broader expansion into podcasting. Discussions are ongoing with no agreement finalised. The streaming giant has also approached other media companies and talent agencies to bring more video podcasters onto its platform.
- Robinhood Markets beat third-quarter profit estimates with $556 million, driven by strong retail trading in equities, options, and crypto. Transaction revenue more than doubled year-on-year. CFO Jason Warnick will retire in 2026, with Shiv Verma set to expand the company’s prediction markets and sustain long-term growth momentum.
- Qualcomm forecast quarterly sales and profit above expectations, driven by stronger premium smartphone demand, though potential reduced business from Samsung weighed on after-hours shares. The company is expanding into laptops, automobiles, and AI data centre chips, with Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi remaining key revenue contributors.
- Arm Holdings forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations, driven by strong AI demand and adoption of its Compute Subsystems products. Second-quarter revenue rose 34% to $1.14 billion, with licensing and royalty income up sharply. The UK chip designer is expanding into data centres and plans to develop its own full chips alongside existing IP licensing.
- Snap beat third-quarter revenue estimates, reporting $1.51 billion and narrowing its net loss to $104 million. Daily active users rose 8% to 477 million. The company partnered with Perplexity AI, receiving $400 million over a year, to integrate AI search into Snapchat. Fourth-quarter revenue is forecast at $1.68–$1.71 billion, though regulatory changes may affect users.
- Lyft expects growth from its expansion into smaller US cities and European operations, projecting over six million new riders in 2026. The company forecast fourth-quarter gross bookings above estimates and reported record third-quarter revenue of $1.69 billion. Premium rides and a partnership with United Airlines are boosting high-margin business.
- DoorDash reported third-quarter earnings of 55 cents per share, missing estimates of 69 cents, as rising costs weighed on profits. Revenue and gross merchandise value exceeded expectations, supported by partnerships with Domino’s, Kroger, and robotics firm Serve. The company plans to invest several hundred million dollars more in 2026 to expand its delivery services.
- Elf Beauty forecast fiscal 2026 sales and profit below Wall Street estimates, citing higher tariff costs and cautious consumer spending. Full-year net sales are expected at $1.55–$1.57 billion, with adjusted profit of $2.80–$2.85 per share. Second-quarter sales also missed expectations, and gross margins declined despite recent price increases and supply chain adjustments.
- Novo Nordisk trimmed its full-year forecasts as sales growth for Wegovy slows amid competition from Eli Lilly and copycat GLP-1 drugs. The company faces pricing pressures, insurance constraints, and patent expiries, though a Medicare pricing deal eased some concerns. CEO Mike Doustdar is driving a turnaround, including a $10 billion bid for biotech Metsera.
- McDonald’s exceeded third-quarter global comparable sales estimates, with same-store sales up 3.6% and US growth at 2.4%, supported by affordable meal deals and promotions. International markets, led by Japan, Germany, and Australia, also strengthened. Quarterly adjusted profit was $3.22 per share, slightly below analysts’ expectations.
- Leonardo expects to exceed full-year financial targets after strong first nine months in 2025, with double-digit growth in orders, revenue, and core profit. Growth was driven by defence contracts, electronics, helicopters, and space businesses. The company reduced its stake in rocket maker Avio while maintaining investments in missile and drone partnerships.
- Morgan Stanley projects Google Cloud could grow over 50% in 2026, driven by backlog and on-demand workloads. With approximately $158 billion in backlog, around 55% expected as revenue in two years, and on-demand growth of 25% year-to-date in 2025, the unit is seen as a key driver of Alphabet’s AI-led outperformance and potential multiple expansion.
- Morgan Stanley raised EssilorLuxottica’s price target to €365, keeping an Overweight rating and naming it a top pick, citing strong growth from its Meta smart-glasses partnership. Wearables are expected to drive double-digit revenue, with unit sales rising to 25 million by 2028, supporting EBIT growth, broader eyewear sales, and long-term margin expansion.
Upcoming data and events
Investors are watching for earnings from Airbnb, Monster Beverage, Take-Two Interactive, Expedia, and Wynn Resorts. Additionally, the US JOLTs Job Openings and Initial Jobless Claims reports will offer further insight into the labour market and potential Fed policy shifts.
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