Global financial markets showed resilience over the past week, balancing geopolitical uncertainty with strong corporate fundamentals and continued momentum in artificial intelligence-driven sectors. While volatility remains tied to developments in the Middle East, investor confidence has been supported by earnings expectations and improving risk appetite.
Market overview and investor sentiment
U.S. equities ended Friday on a mixed note, taking a breather after a strong relief rally earlier in the week. Market sentiment continued to be shaped by geopolitical developments, with cautious optimism surrounding the fragile ceasefire between the United States, Iran and Israel, and the potential for further diplomatic progress.
Inflation data presented a mixed picture. Headline inflation rose sharply due to higher energy prices, while a softer-than-expected core reading suggested underlying price pressures may be moderating. This helped limit equity losses, even as government bond yields edged higher and the U.S. dollar weakened.
In commodities, oil prices eased from recent highs, helping to calm concerns around sustained inflation. At the same time, mega-cap technology shares, particularly in the semiconductor sector, continued to outperform, supported by strong earnings momentum and robust demand linked to artificial intelligence.
Weekly performance across global markets
Over the week as a whole, equity markets posted solid gains, driven by a rebound in risk appetite and improving investor confidence. The announcement of a two-week ceasefire acted as a key catalyst, lifting major indices closer to record levels and supporting a broad-based global recovery.
Expectations for a strong earnings season further underpinned sentiment, with forecasts pointing to healthy revenue growth and double-digit increases in profits, led by the technology sector. Despite ongoing uncertainty around the durability of the truce and the risk of renewed volatility, markets have increasingly looked beyond near-term risks, focusing instead on supportive fundamentals such as resilient corporate earnings, the prospect of monetary easing later in the year, and stabilising bond yields.
Latest market and economic developments
Asia markets react to rising tensions
Asian equities fell after weekend United States–Iran talks collapsed and blockade risks in the Strait of Hormuz lifted oil prices above $100 per barrel. Japan and South Korea led declines, with Hong Kong also weaker, while Australia slipped modestly and mainland Chinese markets were steadier. Energy disruption fears drove broad regional risk aversion and volatility.
US futures and policy concerns
U.S. equity futures fell over 1% after Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following failed talks with Iran. Rising energy prices fuelled inflation concerns, lifting expectations of delayed rate cuts or tighter policy, while investors also turned cautious ahead of key first-quarter earnings from major U.S. banks.
European markets show resilience
European equities ended Friday higher on easing geopolitical tensions and an improved energy supply outlook. The STOXX 50 rose 0.5% to 5,933, while the STOXX 600 gained 0.4% to 615. Banks including UniCredit, Nordea and BBVA, alongside industrials such as Schneider and Siemens, led gains, supported by lower gas prices despite higher bond yields.
Currency markets and safe-haven flows
The U.S. dollar strengthened to a one-week high in early Asian trade as risk sentiment turned negative after US–Iran talks collapsed and blockade plans in the Strait of Hormuz emerged. The dollar index rose 0.5%. The euro weakened 0.5% to $1.1667, reflecting broad dollar demand driven by safe-haven flows and geopolitical uncertainty.
Oil prices surge on supply risks
Brent crude oil climbed above $100 per barrel after Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Gains reflected fears of prolonged supply disruption, as tensions with Iran and failed ceasefire talks heightened uncertainty over global oil flows and market stability.
Political developments in focus
Donald Trump said he is unconcerned about Iran returning to talks after failed negotiations, with plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz amid nuclear disputes and retaliation threats. He also criticised Pope Leo XIV over comments on U.S. action in Iran, while the Pope urged peace and condemned war rhetoric and immigration policies, escalating tensions.
In Europe, Hungary’s opposition Tisza Party is projected to win a two-thirds parliamentary majority, ending Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule. With most votes counted, Péter Magyar’s party leads decisively in a high-turnout election. Orbán conceded defeat, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the result as Hungary reaffirming its European direction and political shift.
Equities on the move
Index changes and market impact
Nasdaq, Inc. announced that SanDisk Corporation will join the Nasdaq-100 Index on 20 April 2026, replacing Atlassian Corporation Plc. The change reflects a shift towards semiconductor and AI infrastructure firms. Passive fund inflows are expected to boost SanDisk, while Atlassian may see near-term selling pressure and increased short-term share price volatility.
Healthcare and innovation
GSK said its experimental cancer drug Mo-rez shows blockbuster potential after early trials demonstrated significant tumour shrinkage in difficult-to-treat cancers. The antibody-drug conjugate targets B7H4 and is advancing into late-stage studies. The data boost confidence in GSK’s oncology pipeline, as the company accelerates development of new treatments.
AI and Semiconductor strength
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company reported strong March revenue, up 45.2% year-on-year, driven by AI chip demand from Nvidia and Apple. First-quarter revenue beat expectations, with profit forecast to rise 50%. 3-nanometre demand exceeds capacity, while resilience persists despite Middle East risks, with investors watching guidance and capital spending closely.
CoreWeave Inc. shares rose by over 10% on Friday after announcing a deal with Anthropic PBC to provide computing power for its Claude AI models, supporting a phased infrastructure rollout. The agreement follows a $21bn contract with Meta Platforms Inc.. CoreWeave continues to expand its role supplying GPU-heavy cloud capacity for major AI developers globally.
Lumentum Holdings Inc. reported strong artificial intelligence-driven demand for its optical and photonic components, with orders extending to 2028. The company is seeing rising hyperscaler demand but still faces supply constraints. Its products are used in data centres and fibre-optic networks that support high-speed AI computing and rapidly expanding cloud infrastructure globally.
Industrial and energy developments
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings is attracting interest from private equity firms including Blackstone Inc., SoftBank Group Corp. and Apollo Global Management for a potential capital tie-up exceeding ¥1 trillion. The restructuring aims to reduce decommissioning liabilities and support growth, including AI-driven data centre demand, alongside nuclear restarts at Kashiwazaki Kariwa.
Consumer and automotive
Porsche AG reported a 15% fall in first-quarter 2026 deliveries to 60,991 vehicles, driven by declines in China and the United States. Weak EV demand, pricing pressure and the end of tax incentives weighed on sales, while Germany grew slightly. The firm is pursuing cost cuts, model reshaping and a broader strategic turnaround under new leadership.
Nike, Inc. was downgraded to neutral by Piper Sandler Companies with a $50 price target, citing saturation in the athleisure market, weakening Classics sales, and limited product innovation. The broker also highlighted stretched valuation and lack of near-term catalysts. Concerns over leadership and earnings visibility added pressure, with shares slightly lower in premarket trading.
Financial sector monitoring
The Federal Reserve is seeking details from major U.S. banks on their exposure to private credit amid rising redemptions and increasing loan stress. Authorities aim to assess potential systemic risks, though officials including Jerome Powell say concerns remain contained. Market strains have prompted tighter lending standards and withdrawal limits in private credit funds.
Airline and E-commerce outlook
Bank of America cut its price target on Ryanair Holdings due to higher fuel cost assumptions, while maintaining a Buy rating. It lowered FY27 earnings estimates but highlighted strong hedging, market share gains and solid growth prospects. Despite weaker sentiment, the airline remains well-positioned with robust traffic and cost controls.
Amazon.com Inc. was maintained at Buy by Needham & Company with a $265 target, but the firm raised concerns over near $200bn FY26 capex. Analyst Laura Martin questioned spending efficiency outside AI, arguing returns should meet a 20% hurdle rate. She warned non-AI investments may face higher disruption risk amid accelerating AI-driven transformation.
Notable investor positioning
Michael Burry reaffirmed his bearish stance on Palantir Technologies Inc., maintaining long-dated put options despite a rally following comments from Donald Trump praising the firm. Burry argues the equity’s fundamental value is well below current levels, even as it remains volatile and down sharply year to date, with potential for short-term rebounds amid sentiment-driven trading.
Upcoming data and key events
The main economic data in the week ahead includes U.S. producer prices, while Europe releases trade and industrial production data. China publishes GDP alongside retail sales, industrial output, unemployment and credit growth. Company earnings are in focus, with U.S. banks reporting and AI guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and ASML Holding N.V.
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