Global equity markets moved lower as investors reacted to geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuating oil prices, and persistent concerns around inflation and interest rates. While economic data continues to show pockets of resilience, sentiment remains cautious and volatility is expected to persist in the near term.
Global Stock Market Performance: US, Europe and Asia Decline
US equities closed lower on Thursday, with the S&P 500 falling around 0.3% to 6,606.49. The Nasdaq Composite also declined by roughly 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped approximately 0.4%. Losses were broad-based, with eight of eleven sectors finishing in negative territory, led by materials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples.
The weaker tone was mirrored globally, with both European and Asian markets also closing lower, reflecting investor caution around geopolitical developments and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.
Key Economic Data Driving Markets: Jobless Claims, Oil Prices and Treasury Yields
US initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations, pointing to a stabilising labour market. However, continuing claims edged higher, suggesting it is taking longer for some workers to find new employment.
Oil prices were volatile and pulled back from intraday highs, while mixed Treasury yields added to overall market uncertainty. At the company level, Boeing shares declined following reports of a reduced role in a lunar mission, while broader weakness in growth equities weighed on overall performance. Despite near-term pressures, the broader backdrop continues to support selective opportunities across equities.
Regional Markets: Asia Mixed, US Futures Stable, Europe Hits Lows
Asian markets were mixed in choppy Friday trading as investors navigated volatile oil prices and persistent inflation concerns. South Korea’s KOSPI rose, supported by technology gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and China’s Shanghai Composite both declined. China kept lending rates unchanged, while Alibaba shares dropped following earnings, highlighting fragile sentiment across the region.
US stock futures steadied overnight, with S&P 500 Futures up 0.1% at 6,669.0, Nasdaq 100 Futures rising 0.1% to 24,600.25, and Dow Jones Futures gaining 0.2% to 46,424.0. Futures tracked easing oil prices and market reassurances from the US and Israel, including President Trump ruling out ground troops and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pausing further strikes, helping to temper fears surrounding the Iran conflict.
European equities fell sharply on Thursday, with the STOXX 50 down 2.1% and the broader index losing 2.4%, hitting yearly lows. Energy prices surged amid Middle East tensions, fuelling inflation concerns, while central banks signalled a hawkish stance. Banks led the declines, and major industrial companies also dropped notably as rising bond yields and economic uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
Forex and Commodities Market: Dollar Weakens, Oil Prices Decline
The US dollar weakened against the euro, with EUR/USD trading around 1.1555. The greenback came under pressure from elevated oil prices linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran, alongside hawkish signals from several global central banks. Meanwhile, the euro strengthened, contributing to the dollar’s first weekly loss in three weeks.
Oil prices fell on Friday, with Brent crude down 1.6% to $106.94 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate falling about 2% to $93.65. The decline followed US signals that approximately 130 million barrels of sanctioned Iranian oil may enter the market. Additional emergency reserve releases are also expected to ease supply concerns, even as Brent had recently surged above $119 amid heightened Middle East tensions.
Central Bank Policy Outlook: ECB Inflation Forecasts and Interest Rates
The European Central Bank kept its main refinancing rate at 2.15%. Headline inflation forecasts were raised to 2.6% in 2026, 2.0% in 2027, and 2.1% in 2028, alongside higher core inflation projections. GDP growth forecasts were revised lower to 0.9% in 2026, 1.3% in 2027, and 1.4% in 2028, reflecting the impact of Middle East tensions and rising energy costs.
Stocks in Focus: Major Company News and Market Movers
Super Micro Computer Shares Fall on US AI Smuggling Charges
Shares of Super Micro Computer fell 12% in after-hours trading after three individuals, including co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, were charged with conspiring to smuggle advanced US AI technology to China. The US Department of Justice stated the scheme generated $2.5 billion in sales. The company is cooperating with authorities, placing employees on leave and dismissing a contractor.
Alibaba Earnings Miss Expectations, Shares Drop on Weak Profit
Alibaba shares fell more than 5% in Hong Kong after weaker-than-expected December quarter earnings, with net income dropping 66.3% due to heavy spending on e-commerce promotions and artificial intelligence. Cloud revenue rose 36%, and the company plans to separate its AI business. Tencent Holdings and Baidu also declined amid similar margin pressures.
Tencent Faces Pressure Amid Increased AI Spending Plans
Tencent separately faced pressure after signalling a reduction in share buybacks to fund a doubling of AI spending in 2026. Despite strong fourth-quarter results, with revenue rising 13% to 194.4 billion yuan and net profit increasing 17% to 64.7 billion yuan, increased investment in AI across gaming, social media, and fintech raised concerns about future margins.
NASA Revises Moon Mission, Reduces Boeing’s Role
NASA is revising its moon-landing plans by reducing Boeing’s role while assigning SpaceX’s Starship rocket the primary responsibility for propelling the Orion capsule into lunar orbit. The change aims to accelerate the Artemis programme. The Space Launch System may still be used to launch Orion into Earth orbit, amid ongoing cost overruns, schedule delays, and Congressional scrutiny of Boeing’s role.
Micron Technology Reports Strong Earnings but Shares Decline
Micron Technology reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $23.86 billion, nearly tripling year-on-year, with earnings per share surging to $12.20. Growth was driven by DRAM and NAND demand, with record margins of 74.9% and free cash flow reaching $6.9 billion. Despite these strong results, shares fell 5.9% as the company plans more than $25 billion in capital expenditure in 2026. Guidance for the third quarter and dividend increases point to continued momentum.
Samsung to Supply AI Memory Chips to OpenAI
Samsung Electronics will supply up to 800 million gigabits of 12-layer HBM4 memory chips to OpenAI for its first in-house AI processor, which is being developed with Broadcom and manufactured by TSMC. The chips are expected to launch by year-end to support rising ChatGPT demand. Samsung is also expanding its AI memory partnership with AMD for future AI GPUs.
Tesla Invests $2.9 Billion in Solar Manufacturing Equipment
Tesla plans to purchase $2.9 billion worth of solar manufacturing equipment from Chinese suppliers, including Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology, and Laplace Renewable Energy Technology. The investment will support the development of 100 GW of US solar capacity by 2028, aimed at powering domestic energy needs and supporting SpaceX, highlighting continued reliance on Chinese technology.
Rivian Gains on Uber Robotaxi Partnership Deal
Rivian shares rose after Uber pledged up to $1.25 billion as part of a robotaxi partnership, including the purchase of 10,000 R2 autonomous vehicles, with options for an additional 40,000 units by 2031. Initial deployments are planned for San Francisco and Miami in 2028, with expansion to 25 cities by 2031. The partnership accelerates Rivian’s Level 4 autonomy capabilities using its RAP1 platform and advanced sensor systems.
Accenture Forecast Signals Slower IT Spending Growth
Accenture forecast third-quarter revenue slightly below expectations as clients remain cautious on large-scale IT transformation projects amid economic uncertainty and Middle East tensions. Second-quarter revenue rose 8.3% to $18.04 billion, with earnings per share of $2.93 and new bookings increasing 6% to $22.1 billion. A slowdown in federal business is expected to reduce fiscal 2026 performance by around 1%.
FedEx Raises Guidance as Demand Remains Stable
FedEx reported steady global demand in early March despite the Iran conflict and fuel price pressures. Strong holiday-quarter earnings and effective fuel surcharges supported profitability, sending shares up 9% after hours. The company raised full-year profit guidance to between $19.30 and $20.10 per share, with expected revenue growth of 6% to 6.5%, supported by cost controls and restructuring efforts.
Unilever Explores Food Division Spin-Off with McCormick
Unilever is in discussions to spin off its food division and merge it with McCormick & Company in an all-equity deal that could be finalised within weeks. The division, which includes brands such as Knorr and Hellmann’s, could be valued at tens of billions, allowing Unilever to focus more on beauty, personal care, and home products as part of a broader strategy to streamline operations.
Accor Faces Allegations, Shares Fall on Legal Risks
Accor shares fell 6.0% after Grizzly Research alleged that some hotels facilitated child trafficking from Russian-occupied Ukraine. The report claimed that 80% of responding hotels agreed to questionable booking requests. Accor has denied the allegations and launched an internal investigation, while Morgan Stanley highlighted potential legal, regulatory, and reputational risks, noting limited exposure in its portfolio.
HSBC Considers Job Cuts as AI Adoption Accelerates
HSBC is considering cutting up to 20,000 jobs, approximately 10% of its workforce, over a three to five-year period, focusing on non-client-facing roles as AI adoption accelerates. The initiative aims to simplify operations, reduce costs, and exit lower-value businesses, although the review remains at an early stage and no final decisions have been made.
US Approves $16.5 Billion Arms Sales to Middle East
The US State Department approved potential arms sales exceeding $16.5 billion to the UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan amid the Iran conflict. The packages include missiles, drones, radar systems, and upgrades to F-16 aircraft, with contractors including RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Lockheed Martin. The move follows Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure, which have contributed to rising oil and gas prices.
Analyst Insights and Market Outlook for 2026
JPMorgan Lowers S&P 500 Forecast for 2026 on Oil Prices and Middle East Risks
JPMorgan lowered its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 7,200, citing risks linked to the Middle East conflict, surging oil prices, and investor complacency. The bank noted that oil supply disruptions have reached record levels and could reduce corporate earnings by 2% to 5%. Markets remain highly leveraged, with limited support if the index falls below its 200-day moving average. Preferred areas include low volatility and quality growth strategies, as well as sectors such as defence, energy, and cybersecurity.
Nvidia Stock Outlook 2026: New Street Research Sees Strong AI Revenue Growth
New Street Research added Nvidia to its 2026 “best idea” list, citing strong order growth that suggests significantly higher long-term revenue potential than previously expected. CEO Jensen Huang has projected cumulative revenue exceeding $1 trillion through 2027. The firm believes Nvidia could generate earnings per share above $20, with shares currently trading below 10 times earnings. AMD and TSMC were also included on the list.
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Carnival Stock Despite Weak 2025 Performance
Morgan Stanley upgraded Carnival to Overweight following a 28% year-to-date decline in its share price, citing an improved risk-reward profile. Despite lowering earnings estimates and price targets for fiscal 2026 and 2027, the bank highlighted limited exposure to Middle East risks, sensitivity to fuel prices, and a history of recovery following demand shocks. The stock is currently trading below 10 times projected 2027 earnings.
Okta Stock Forecast: Macquarie Initiates Coverage with $100 Price Target
Macquarie initiated coverage on Okta with an Outperform rating and a $100 price target, citing revenue growth potential driven by AI-enabled identity solutions. Operational improvements and traction through AWS Marketplace are expected to support top-line growth, although competition from Microsoft, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto Networks remains a key risk. Revenue for fiscal 2027–2028 is projected at $3.19 to $3.49 billion, with earnings per share between $3.82 and $4.26.
Upcoming Economic Data and Market Events to Watch
Today is relatively quiet in terms of economic data and earnings releases. In the United States, Baker Hughes is scheduled to release its March oil rig count and total rig data, with previous figures at 412 oil rigs and 553 total rigs.
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