Global equity markets ended the week on a softer note after planned US-Iran peace talks were cancelled, weighing on investor sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish stance under new Chair Kevin Warsh added further pressure, with markets now pricing in at least one rate hike this year. Declines in oil prices, aided by a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, helped limit broader risk aversion.
Latest market and economic update
Asian markets rallied on Monday as progress in US-Iran peace talks improved investor sentiment and eased geopolitical concerns. Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.9%, South Korea’s market gained 2.6%, and the broader Asia-Pacific index added 1.0%. Chinese shares were flat. Strong demand for technology stocks and optimism over regional growth supported gains across the region.
US stock index futures pared earlier losses on Sunday night after signs of progress emerged in US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures were all down around 0.3%–0.4%, recovering from steeper declines triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions. Investors remain cautious as fragile negotiations, economic data and inflation figures dominate focus.
European equities eased from record highs on Friday, with the STOXX Europe 600 falling 0.2% and the Euro STOXX 50 down 0.3%, as bond yields stabilised and Iran delayed nuclear talks with the US. Luxury stocks led declines, with LVMH, Hermès and Ferrari weaker, while technology shares also fell. Volkswagen dropped sharply, offsetting modest gains elsewhere in autos.
The US dollar remained firm near a one-year high, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates later this year. Attention is now on the US PCE inflation report. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD traded around 1.1460, with the stronger dollar limiting further gains in the euro.
Oil prices reversed early gains and moved lower on Monday as reports of progress in US-Iran talks eased supply concerns. Brent crude fell 1.4% to $79.48 a barrel, while WTI slipped 0.2% to $76.46. Despite renewed threats from President Trump, investors focused on diplomacy, reducing the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets.
Iran said significant progress had been made in peace talks with the US in Switzerland, with further negotiations planned under Qatari and Pakistani mediation. Both sides agreed to oversight and ceasefire mechanisms. However, tensions remain over Israel’s operations in Lebanon, with Iran temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing disputes.
President Donald Trump claimed Prime Minister Keir Starmer will resign, criticising his handling of immigration and energy policy. The remarks come amid growing speculation over Starmer’s future following internal Labour divisions and Andy Burnham’s return to Parliament. Downing Street has not commented. Any resignation would trigger a Labour leadership contest.
Colombia has elected right-wing lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella as president on a pro-business platform focused on reviving economic growth. He has pledged to cut the size of the state by 40%, broaden the tax base, restart oil exploration and permit fracking, aiming to nearly double oil output and attract investment while boosting public finances.
Equities on the move
The following companies experienced moves in their share price driven by analyst ratings, quarterly earnings, or other news:
Goldman Sachs has cut global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing higher memory chip prices driven by AI demand. Despite weaker unit sales, the bank expects market value to grow as consumers increasingly favour premium devices. Apple is forecast to remain the market leader, while foldable smartphones are expected to gain market share steadily.
US President Donald Trump said he no longer considers Anthropic a national security threat, after earlier expressing concern. He praised the firm’s quick response to export controls and engagement with CEO Dario Amodei. While not ruling out emergency powers, he said they may not be needed. Anthropic reiterated cooperation with US authorities.
Charles Schwab is partnering with Cboe Global Markets to launch binary options tied to S&P 500 performance, offering all-or-nothing payouts, according to reports. The products will roll out in coming months. Schwab is also introducing new options features with partial payouts for near-correct predictions, reflecting growing interest in prediction and event-based trading markets.
Porsche expects to finalise negotiations on a second cost-cutting programme before its July factory shutdown, according to CEO Michael Leiters. The carmaker plans lower production capacity than last year’s 280,000 vehicles and aims to improve profitability through efficiency measures, job reductions and closer cooperation with Audi.
Bank of America believes the European Central Bank remains focused on inflation risks and could deliver further interest rate increases despite weak eurozone growth. The bank expects one additional rate rise, although lower oil prices may delay action. Longer term, rates could fall from 2027. Investors are also monitoring the ECB’s shrinking balance sheet and liquidity conditions.
Bank of America warned Europe’s equity rally may be losing momentum after strong gains, urging rotation from AI-linked and high-momentum stocks into defensives. It flagged stretched valuations in semiconductors, banks and industrials, and favoured staples and pharma. It sees downside risk for STOXX 600 amid weak growth and high earnings expectations.
Upcoming data and events
Investors will this week focus on Strait of Hormuz shipping reopening after US-Iran agreement and its impact on energy markets. Key data include US PCE inflation, personal spending, durable goods and PMIs across major economies, plus Germany’s GfK and Ifo surveys. Micron, FedEx and Carnival are among companies reporting results.
This information is being provided solely for information purposes and should not be deemed or construed as investment advice, tax, legal, or any other ancillary regulatory advice. CCIS does not accept liability for actions, proceedings, costs, demands, expenses, damages, and losses suffered by persons as a result of information, views, or opinions appearing in this document. The financial instruments discussed are intended for retail clients however, they may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own informed decisions and seek their own advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments or implementing strategies discussed herein. The value of the investment may go down as well as up and may be affected by changes in currency. Where investments are denominated in a currency other than the investor’s base or reporting currency, changes in foreign exchange rates may adversely affect the value and/or returns of the investment. Any performance figures quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a guarantee nor a reliable guide to future performance. Calamatta Cuschieri Investment Services Ltd (C13729) is licensed by the MFSA to carry out investment services business in terms of the Investment Services Act (Cap. 370). The company is a subsidiary of Calamatta Cuschieri Moneybase plc and is registered at Level 0, Ewropa Business Centre, Dun Karm Street, Birkirkara BKR 9034, Malta.
