Global equity markets started the week on a positive note, supported by a temporary easing in geopolitical risks following a five-day pause on potential US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure announced by Donald Trump. While Iran denied that talks had taken place, describing the move as strategic, the shift in tone nonetheless boosted investor sentiment and triggered a broad-based market rally.
Major US indices posted solid gains, while movements across oil, currencies, and bond markets reflected a reduction in risk aversion.
Market Overview
Global equities moved higher on Monday, led by strong performances in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, each rising between 1 percent and 1.4 percent. The advance followed easing geopolitical tensions, with all sectors in the S&P 500 closing higher and growth-oriented areas such as technology and consumer discretionary leading gains.
In parallel, oil prices fell sharply, with West Texas Intermediate crude declining nearly 10 percent. US Treasury yields and the dollar also weakened, reflecting reduced risk aversion.
At the company level, Palantir Technologies and Albemarle Corporation recorded strong gains, supported by defence adoption of artificial intelligence and improving electric vehicle demand dynamics, respectively. In contrast, Estée Lauder fell sharply following reports of a potential merger with Puig, while Thomson Reuters declined after a broker downgrade.
Despite the rebound, overall market performance in March remains weaker, as earlier oil price spikes linked to Middle East tensions weighed on sentiment, particularly among smaller companies and non-US equities.
Latest Market and Economic Updates
Asia Pacific Markets
Asian equities rose on Tuesday but pared early gains amid conflicting signals surrounding the Iran conflict. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced following softer inflation data, while South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fluctuated sharply. Chinese indices edged higher, as persistent geopolitical uncertainty and recent market losses continued to weigh on regional sentiment.
US Futures
US equity futures fell on Monday evening as Iran denied holding talks with Washington, contradicting Donald Trump’s statements. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6% to 6,598, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.6% to 24,256, and Dow Jones futures declined 0.5% to 46,280. The moves reflected uncertainty over Middle East tensions and their potential impact on risk sentiment.
European Markets
European equities closed higher on Monday as risk appetite improved following a US pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. The Euro STOXX 50 rose 1.2% to 5,566 and the STOXX 600 gained 0.6% to 577. Major movers included Santander, UniCredit, and Intesa Sanpaolo, each up over 3%, ASML up 4%, and Siemens Energy rising nearly 5%.
Currency Markets
The US dollar strengthened on Tuesday, with the dollar index climbing toward 99.5 after recovering from Monday’s losses. The rebound came as Iran denied any de-escalation talks, contradicting Donald Trump, and renewed regional tensions. Against the euro, the dollar gained ground, with the euro trading around 1.1578 amid heightened geopolitical and inflation risks.
Commodities
Oil prices rose in early Asian trade, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate rebounding after sharp losses as Iran denied US talks, contradicting Donald Trump’s claims. The uncertainty renewed supply concerns amid ongoing conflict and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz, while a refinery incident in Texas added further support to crude markets.
Key Global Developments
This section highlights macroeconomic and geopolitical factors shaping the market.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil prices near $100 have not yet reduced demand despite a severe global energy crisis driven by Middle East conflict and disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. The US is releasing emergency reserves to stabilise markets, while supply risks, geopolitical tensions and rising prices continue to weigh on global growth.
In trade developments, Australia and the European Union signed a long-awaited trade deal removing most tariffs and boosting critical minerals exports, though quotas on beef and sheep meat drew criticism from farmers. The agreement aims to strengthen supply chains, reduce reliance on China and deepen trade, security and defence ties between the partners.
Equities on the Move
Technology and AI
Nvidia may need to redesign its next-generation Feynman AI chip platform due to limited 2 nanometre capacity at TSMC, which is fully booked until at least 2028 amid strong AI demand. Rising prices and supply constraints could impact plans. Feynman, unveiled in 2025, is intended to succeed the upcoming Vera Rubin platform.
Apple Inc. plans to introduce advertising in its Maps app, Bloomberg reported, aiming to boost its services revenue. Ads, similar to Google Maps, will allow retailers to bid for top search results, such as restaurants. The feature could launch this summer across iPhone, other devices, and the web, further expanding a services business now worth over $100 billion annually.
Barclays expects Amazon to benefit from accelerating growth in its cloud unit, AWS, driven by rising AI spending and demand for agentic AI workloads. AWS growth could reach 34% in Q3 2026, supported by partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic. AI-related revenue may exceed $10 billion by year-end, potentially driving a re-rating of Amazon shares.
MongoDB was upgraded to Outperform by Mizuho, citing stronger growth, rising customers and AI-driven demand. It raised its price target to $325, noting improved sales strategy, efficiency and expanding product use. The bank expects continued revenue growth, margin gains and long-term upside as AI boosts database workloads.
Strategic Deals
Berkshire Hathaway is acquiring a 2.49% stake in Tokio Marine Holdings for $1.8 billion, forming a strategic partnership focused on reinsurance and global investments. The deal strengthens Berkshire’s presence in Japan, with scope to increase its holding, while Tokio Marine gains stable risk capacity to support growth and manage underwriting volatility.
Delivery Hero SE agreed to sell its Taiwan operations to Grab Holdings for $600 million. The deal, expected in H2 2026, will reduce debt and fund corporate purposes, marking the first step in Delivery Hero’s strategic review to realise value from its assets. Barclays noted the transaction underlines hidden value and could pave the way for further asset sales.
Consumer & Market Movers
Estée Lauder is in talks with Barcelona-based Puig over a potential merger that could create a $40 billion beauty group. Shares of Estée Lauder fell about 7% on the news. No agreement has been reached, and terms remain uncertain. The discussions follow broader sector dealmaking, including acquisitions by E.l.f. Beauty and L’Oréal.
Shares of DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment rose yesterday after reports that US senators plan bipartisan legislation to ban sports betting and casino-style games on prediction markets. The bill aims to curb federal oversight, protect consumers, uphold tribal sovereignty, and limit exposure among young people.
Analyst Actions and Market Calls
Morgan Stanley says the market pullback is likely nearing its end within an ongoing bull market, supported by strong earnings growth and improved underlying signals. However, recovery depends on central banks easing their hawkish stance. Rising inflation concerns, bond volatility and tighter policy remain key risks that could delay a full rebound in equity markets.
Analyst Trip Chowdhry has issued a rare sell call on Tesla, warning its AI-driven investment case has collapsed and setting a $150 target for 2026. Growing scepticism from major banks highlights valuation concerns, weak delivery forecasts and execution risks. Upcoming delivery data and updates on AI and robotaxis will be crucial for investor confidence.
Bank of America remains positive on ASML, citing a strong memory cycle through H1 2027 and upside in memory CAPEX. Key catalysts include high-NA and low-NA EUV adoption, potential capacity increases, and a possible 2030 revenue guide lift. Buy rating and €1,598 price target are maintained.
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on GE Vernova to $960 from $817, citing strong gas turbine demand, rising pricing and medium-term growth from electrification. The brokerage highlighted limited turbine availability through 2028, higher pricing, and potential upside from services, nuclear opportunities, and electrification trends supporting revenue and EBITDA forecasts.
Bank of America raised price targets for Dell Technologies and Sandisk, citing strong AI server demand and a robust NAND outlook. Dell’s revenue forecasts were lifted, while Sandisk benefits from rising prices. However, the bank warns that weaker second-half PC demand and early buying may pose downside risks.
Bank of America cut its price target on Super Micro Computer to $24 from $34, citing risks from the indictment of three individuals over alleged export-control violations. While the company is not a defendant, reputational and operational concerns, potential supplier restrictions, and customer caution could pressure margins and revenue growth.
Upcoming Economic Data and Events
Investors are closely watching upcoming economic releases, including flash PMIs from Germany, the UK, and the US, US Q4 productivity and unit labour costs, Richmond Fed manufacturing and services indices, and US money supply data. Earnings reports feature Xiaomi Corporation, China Telecom Corporation Limited, GameStop, and KB Home.
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