Consumers expect lower inflation going forward

written on August 9, 2022

The war in Ukraine has tended to increase uncertainty regarding inflation and growth prospects. When and with what consequences this war will end is pure speculation, but capital markets are expected to build a certain immunity to the headline risks in the coming weeks. The medium- to long-term consequences, on the other hand, could be significant. It is possible that we are at the beginning of a new bloc formation or a new Cold War. This would put a significant damper on globalization and further fuel higher structural inflation. 

All three major US equity indices pared earlier gains on Monday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing in the red as weak guidance from Nvidia rattled sentiment. On the positive side, shares of clean-energy companies enjoyed gains after Senate approved a $430 billion bill to tackle climate change, lower drug prices, and raise corporate taxes. Elsewhere, major equity market indices in Europe closed higher yesterday following the release of a new batch of economic data and updates on the situation regarding the Ukraine crisis. 

Summary

  • Shares in Asia mostly rose Tuesday, with markets in Hong Kong, China, and Australia leading the way. The Nikkei fell almost 1%, however, as SoftBank posted one of its biggest losses at its investment unit. Markets in India were closed for a holiday. 
  • European shares are headed for a flat start while US equity futures drifted flat to positive, as focus turns to tomorrow’s inflation data in the US. 
  • Oil prices eased this morning after gaining roughly 2% in the previous session, as traders mulled the latest progress in talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear accord, which could potentially set the stage for increased crude exports from the heavily sanctioned country. 
  • US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 6.2% in July, the lowest reading in five months, from a record high of 6.8% in June. Expectations fell sharply for gas and food price changes.  The three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 3.2% from 3.6%. 
  • Nvidia pre-announced weaker-than-expected second-quarter revenue yesterday driven mostly by what the company said was disappointing gaming sales. Separately, Citi named the company as one of the top 30 most attractive shares, based on fundamentals, sentiment and valuation. 
  • Federal investigators raided the Florida residence of Donald Trump on Monday as part of an investigation into whether he took classified documents from the White House when he left office, an explosive development that risks hanging over his possible run for the presidency in 2024. 

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